Chief Economist Brian Wesbury of First Trust shares his insights on the state of the U.S. economy in this article written by Matthew Jarrell. He cuts through the flak and garbage and looks at things from an objective point of view and not a sensational one. He often talks about the "four pillars of economic strength or weakness - monetary policy, tax policy, trade policy, spending or regulatory policy."
His Conclusion - "It's time to put the federal government on notice. We're watching them and we're not too happy with their lack of fiscal responsibility. Overall, we're okay. There's no impending recession. I saw an article title that said: "Morgan Stanley Sees 30% Chance of Recession." Do you know that at any one time and historically the probability of an economic recession is never at 0%. The U.S. economy has spent nearly 26% of the time in recession. It has varied widely and often is measured differently by each reporting source. Some would argue that data being used to predict recession has such little correlation to the economy that its use is far reaching and insignificant. Others would argue monetary policy can and has actually induced each U.S. economic recession. Money remains easy. If interest rates go to 3.0%+ then we'll have some tightening of the money supply."
The financial advisors at Stout Bowman regularly monitor economic projections as we put together our investment and financial planning policies. If you'd like us to share our thoughts with you, please contact us.